What could the next alerts cost?
Expected Disputely fees for the fixed Hidden Path cohort, revised when complete reports bring new evidence.
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Expected alert fees per remaining email · next 90 days
Why it changed
The three model inputs
- Recent first-alert rate · 14 days
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- Assumed monthly change
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- Fees per alerting group
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A zero-event fortnight uses a one-event floor for forecasting; actual counts stay zero. The monthly multiplier changes only when both comparison fortnights have at least three new groups. It stays between 0.5 (halving) and 1 (no decline). These are planning assumptions, not statistical confidence guarantees.
Weekly first alerts
Each historical email counts once at its first confirmed alert. Repeat alerts remain in the alert-row and observed-fee totals. Faded bars indicate partial coverage; gaps are not zero-alert periods.
| Week ending | At risk at start | New groups | First-alert rate | Alert rows | Observed fee estimate | Coverage |
|---|
Estimate history
The reference stays at $66. Each checkpoint forecasts the following 90 days. Corrections retain earlier versions; retrospective calculations were not forecasts issued on those dates.
| Data through | Per remaining email | Remaining | Total exposure | Version / source | Recorded |
|---|
What this estimate means
This is a planning estimate, not a reconciled invoice balance or a statistically validated prediction. It estimates fees associated with people first alerting in the next 90 days; related repeat fees may arrive later.
The fixed cohort contains 204 Stripe customer records grouped into 201 historical email keys. Dates use the workbook’s Date Received; its timezone is unspecified. Refund dates are excluded. Complete coverage and current confirmed matching are required before a checkpoint advances. Published-rate estimates on observed alert rows are separate from the fixed $499.05 forecast fee assumption.